Team USA MTB Olympics Spots All But Secured
Batten, Blunk and Amos look to be Paris bound. Blevins on the cusp.
This week, I wanted to dive deeper into the USA Cycling athlete selection criteria for the Olympic MTB squad. For this exercise, we will assume that Team USA has secured two start spots for the men’s and women’s MTB events in Paris. The question is, who gets those four spots?
Here’s the TL/DR: Under the selection criteria, Haley Batten and Savilia Blunk are on the squad. Riley Amos (unless something absolutely crazy happens with the top three U23 rankings after Nove Mesto) has also secured an automatic selection. Christopher Blevins is a shoo-in for a discretionary selection, and with a top 5 in Nove, Mesto will get an auto selection. No other Americans have a path to auto-qualify.
If you would like to see how I got there, I've included my work below using the criteria posted by USA Cycling. My comments are in bold. The selection criteria are in block quotes.
USA CYCLING ATHLETE SELECTION PROCEDURES—2024 OLYMPIC GAMES, PARIS, FRANCE—MOUNTAIN BIKE XCO – MEN AND WOMEN
An athlete may receive an automatic nomination to the Team based on meeting one or more of the following prioritized criteria:
MTB XCO – Men and Women
1. Any U.S. eligible athlete who finishes in the top-three (3) of the 2023 UCI Elite MTB XCO World Championships, provided that the race is entirely held and runs under UCI regulations, will be nominated to the 2024 Olympic Games Team.
a. If more than one athlete meets this criterion, then the athlete with the highest placing will be nominated first, followed by the athlete with the next highest placing, and so on.
b. In order to maintain their position on the 2024 Olympic Games Team, the eligible athlete(s) must continue to demonstrate the ability to perform at a similar level based on results from Top Level Competitions1.
2023 World Championships results: MEN: (1) Tom Pidcock, (2) Sam Gaze, (3) Nino Schurter. WOMEN: (1) Pauline Ferand Prevot, (2) Loana Lecomte, (3) Puck Pieterse
Because no Americans finished in the top three of the 2023 XCO World Championships, this criterion is no longer applicable. Therefore, we move to auto-selection criterion 2.
2. If positions remain after the preceding criterion, any U.S. eligible athlete who finishes in the top-three (3) of the 2023 UCI MTB XCO World Cup Final Individual standings will be nominated to the 2024 Olympic Games Team.
a. If more than one athlete meets this criterion, then the athlete with the highest placing will be nominated first, followed by the athlete with the next highest placing, and so on.
b. In order to maintain their position on the 2024 Olympic Games Team, the eligible athlete(s) must continue to demonstrate the ability to perform at a similar level based on results from Top Level Competitions.
2023 World Cup Final Individual Standings: MEN: (1) Nino Schurter, (2) Jordan Sarrou, (3) Mathias Flückiger. WOMEN: (1) Puck Pieterse, (2) Loana Lecomte, (3) Mona Mitterwalner
Because no Americans finished in the top three of the 2023 XCO World Cup final rankings, this criteria is no longer applicable. Therefore, we move to auto-selection criterion 3.
3. If positions remain after the preceding criteria, any U.S. eligible athlete with two (2) top-five (5) 2024 UCI Elite World Cup MTB XCO results between January 1, 2024, and May 27, 2024, will be nominated to the 2024 Olympic Games Team.
a. If more than one athlete meets this criterion, the athlete with the highest ranking on the 2024 UCI Elite MTB XCO World Cup Individual standings on May 27, 2024, will be nominated first, followed by the athlete with the next highest ranking, and so on.
b. If two or more athletes are still tied, athletes will be nominated in order of the highest placing in the most recent 2024 UCI Elite MTB XCO World Cup event before May 27, 2024.
Here’s where things get interesting. Haley Batten and Savilia Blunk meet this criteria in the women's field. Haley won in Araxá and was third in Mairiporã. Savilia was second in Mairiporã and third in Araxá. There is only one other World Cup, Nove Mesto, that happens before the May 27 cut-off date, meaning that no other athlete could meet the criteria, and therefore, Batten and Blunk should have secured the two available Olympic spots. No other US women were in the top five.
For the men, Christopher Blevins won in Mairiporã. But an unfortunate run-in with a course stake in the first minute of the Araxá World Cup meant he was outside the top five. An amazing performance going from 104 to 22nd but outside the top five means no automatic selection under this criteria. If Blevins gets in the top five in Nove Mesto, he will secure the automatic selection.
With the women seemingly decided, we will move on to criteria 4 to see what happens if Blevins doesn’t secure a top five in Nove Mesto and who the second men’s athlete will be.
4. If positions remain after the preceding criteria, any U.S. eligible athlete who wins the 2023 UCI U23 MTB XCO World Championships, provided that the race is entirely held and runs under UCI regulations, will be nominated to the 2024 Olympic Games Team.
a. In order to maintain their position on the 2024 Olympic Games Team, the eligible athlete(s) must continue to demonstrate the ability to perform at a similar level based on results from Top Level Competitions.
Because neither Riley Amos nor Bjorn Riley (nor any other U.S. rider) won the 2023 MTB XCO World Championship, this criterion is no longer applicable.
5. If positions remain after the preceding criteria, any U.S. eligible athlete who wins two (2) 2024 UCI World Cup U23 MTB XCO results between January 1, 2024 and May 27, 2024, and is currently ranked in the top-three (3) of the 2024 UCI World Cup U23 MTB XCO ranking as of May 27th, 2024, will be nominated to the 2024 Olympic Games Team.
Riley Amos won the first two rounds of the World Cup in Mairiporã and Araxá, and he is currently ranked first in the world. Assuming he maintains his top-three U23 World Cup Ranking, Riley Amos is automatically selected for the Olympic squad.
6. If positions remain after considering the preceding criteria, athletes may be nominated to the 2024 Olympic Games Team in accordance with USA Cycling’s Discretionary Athlete Selection
I’m going to include USA Cycling’s discretionary Athlete Selection Procedures below. Assuming that the men hold on to the two spots, I can't see a scenario in which Blevins will not be selected. I would think that this “medal capable” language, based on who he beat in Mairiporã, gets him the spot:
Beating the previous year’s World Championship or Olympic medalists or the current top-ranked UCI Elite athletes in Top Level Competition on courses similar to the event that the athlete is being selected for on multiple occasions in the past 12 months.
If, somehow, the men lose the second spot, Blevins will need to secure a top 5 in Nove Mesto to go over Amos since he would then meet criterion 3. If Blevins doesn’t do this, Amos will go.
If you want to do an even deeper dive, here are the discretionary procedures USA Cycling uses for all its disciplines.
DISCRETIONARY SELECTION PROCEDURES
USA Cycling is responsible for selecting athletes to participate in all Protected Competitions. Athletes can qualify for Protected Competition by meeting automatic criteria or, where quota spots remain after application of automatic criteria, through discretionary selection criteria.
Discretionary Selection Criteria
The following criteria are considered in priority order A-D when making discretionary selections for Protected Competitions. Criterion B is only considered for team-based events. Time periods listed below look back from the deadline date for athlete discretionary petitions.
A. Medal Capable Athletes – A medal capable athlete has clearly demonstrated the ability to produce a medal winning result in the competition for which the athlete is being selected by achieving one of the following criteria:
Winning a medal (top 3 finish) in the past 24 months at the World Championships or Olympic Games and demonstrating the continuing ability to perform at that level or higher based on results and performances in Top Level Competition* in the past 12 months; or,
Beating the previous year’s World Championship or Olympic medalists or the current top-ranked UCI Elite athletes in Top Level Competition on courses similar to the event that the athlete is being selected for on multiple occasions in the past 12 months.
* A Top Level Competition is one that includes participation by many of the best riders in the world (e.g., as indicated by recent World Championship results, World Cup results and/or current UCI rankings).
B. Athletes Who Maximize Team Performance – For Road Race, Team Pursuit, Team Sprint, and Madison it is necessary to select the best team and not necessarily the best individual athlete(s). Team chemistry and the ability of an athlete to fulfill a specific role on the team are vital for success. For example, the Road Race event is scored individually but requires a team of athletes to work together and execute a team strategy so the designated leader(s) can achieve the best result possible. Meanwhile, Team Pursuit, Team Sprint and the Madison on the track are scored as a team, and rely on the careful assembly of a team that will work together to achieve the best result possible.
Subjective judgment is required to select the athletes who will work together as an effective team and contribute to the execution of USA Cycling’s strategy for team success or a team leader’s success. Where reasonable, USA Cycling will use objective measures to support subjective judgments under this criterion.
C. Future Medal Capable Athletes – An athlete who is future medal capable has the potential to produce a medal-winning result within three years at a World Championship or Olympic Games by demonstrating a recent trend of improving performance in Top Level Competition or training.
D. Furtherance of USA Cycling’s High Performance Plan Goals - If quota positions remain after the application of the criteria above, athletes may be selected to support the event strategy and/or goal(s) outlined in the relevant ASP.
Data to Support Discretionary Selection Criteria
USA Cycling considers data useful when making discretionary selections. An athlete’s discretionary selection petition must be accompanied by credible data relevant to the Protected Competition to which the athlete is seeking nomination. Below are examples of relevant data. This list is neither exclusive nor mandatory.
For all criteria (in no particular order):
Times on courses (or portions of courses) of similar length or course profile and/or in similar environmental conditions to the Protected Competition being selected for;
Athlete power data;
Aerodynamic drag data;
Event and specific role demand data.
For Athletes Who Maximize Team Performance selections (in no particular order):
Demonstrated willingness to work selflessly for team objectives;
Demonstrated tactical proficiency;
Previous experience fulfilling similar roles;
Evidence of ability to meet the physical requirements of the Protected Competition being selected for;
Coachability;
Ability to enhance team chemistry.
For choosing between two or more athletes under the same criterion (other than Medal Capable) (in no particular order):
Race results in Top Level Competitions;
Head-to-head competition results;
Sport Performance staff’s assessment of an athlete’s ability to meet the performance demands of the course and Protected Competition;
Sport Performance staff’s assessment of an athlete’s ability to meet the performance demands required to execute USA Cycling’s strategy or race plan.
1 A Top Level Competition is one that includes participation by many of the best riders in the world (e.g., as indicated by recent World Championship results, World Cup results and/or current UCI rankings).