Field Notes | World Champs Preview
Rosters, predictions, old video and a story or two
Greetings once again from Belgium1. On this most recent trip, I am staying in an Antwerp neighborhood that Hoodmaps describes as for “rich locals and hipsters.” This is my third year staying in Antwerp before the cyclocross world championships, and I always seem to gravitate toward this part of town.
What’s funny is that this is the Hoodmaps snapshot of my neighborhood in Washington, DC. It’s what I know. It’s familiar.
Since we’re here, let’s talk about familiarity briefly. Familiarity is a double-edged sword. It’s comfortable, and it builds confidence, deserved or not. Allow me to illustrate both, starting with comfort.
In international bike racing, familiarity rears its head through this phenomenon in which riders from the same country tend to race near each other. It’s a familiarity or contentment with positioning in the field. And it’s not just North Americans. In the junior through elite World Cup fields, you will see clusters of Swiss or British or some other nation’s riders all clumped together and seemingly satisfied with racing amongst one another. The aphorism may be “familiarity breeds contempt,” but in these circumstances, I’ve been workshopping “familiarity breeds content,” as in contentment with where you are in the field because you’re amongst people whose ability you know. It’s time for these riders to meet new people.
That covers contentment. Let’s now chat about confidence. Or, in my case, how familiarity bred hubris.
I arrived in Antwerp, unpacked my car, and drove to the secret parking lot on the Schelde, which charges only 6 euros for 24 hours. I’ve used this lot before, so I know how to find the tricky entrance over the tram tracks and navigate the less-than-intuitive pay kiosk. I have this place nailed. I know Antwerp so well that I may as well live here.
Is it any surprise that the customs officer in the Brussels airport asked me exactly that after seeing all of the BRU stamps in my passport? “Do you live here?” I’m more or less an honorary resident of this place.
Hubris. Naked and unadulterated hubris.
The next morning, I walked to the lot to get my car to go to Hoogerheide for a Thursday afternoon recon of the World Cup track. As I made my way there, something didn’t look right. The ordinarily full lot was empty. Not a car in sight. Not even mine. All of the vehicles had been stolen! What is happening?
Of course, that wasn’t what was happening. All the cars (or just my car because everyone else knew to leave) had been towed.
Thankfully, there was an attendant letting people know the lot was closed. I asked him where my car may have gone, and he said it had been towed. I asked him why, and he said there was an event that day. Didn’t I see the sign?
I had not seen the sign. And even if I had, my illiteracy would’ve prevented me from knowing what it meant. As the lesson in humility was not yet complete, it started to rain as I fumbled through the towing company’s Dutch language phone menu, desperately trying to figure out how to get my car back. I finally was given a general idea of where to go, and after realizing it would be quicker for me to walk than take the train and two buses to the impound lot, I went for a 5k rainy urban hike, saw parts of Antwerp I never would have otherwise seen and still made it to Hoogerheide on time.
Lesson learned. Humility firmly restored. I’m not on tour, I’m a tourist. I’ll let the passport control guy know on my way back home.
Worlds Preview
My Belgian comeuppance aside, let’s talk about some bike racing. In the past several years, we have made a habit of over-analyzing Hoogerheide to try to predict what would happen at the World Championships based on the final World Cup results. With the addition of Maasmechelen as a World Cup on the same weekend as Hoogerheide, that analysis is muddier than, well, Maasmechelen or Hoogerheide.
On the men’s side, it doesn’t change anything. Even with Wout’s 11th-hour decision to deny Jens Adams a spot on the World’s team, picking a favorite to win the men’s race is unchanged. Mathieu van der Poel will have to make many mistakes to lose.
On the women’s side, however, things get a bit trickier. Imagine if Maasmechelen was the only World Cup this past weekend, and Blanka Vas won. All of the favorites were there, and Vas won. What a glorious result to throw everyone’s predictions into disarray!
But then there was a World Cup the next day, and Lucinda Brand rode away from everyone, but Vas was still second, ahead of Puck Pieterse and a distant Fem van Empel. What does it all mean? Is Brand the runaway favorite? Does Vas have a chance to win a rainbow jersey? Or will Fem do what she has done for the past two years and show up when it matters.
Before we answer that, let’s take a look at the Worlds venue. Lievin has hosted three World Cups, a European Championship, and several French Cup events. The last time it hosted a World Cup was in January 2012. Zdenek Stybar and Marianne Vos won, with Caroline Mani in fourth. Lars van der Haar beat Julian Alaphilippe to win the U23 race, and Mathieu van der Poel won the junior race.
While the map doesn’t tell much of a story, here’s some onboard footage from Christian Huele from the 2012 World Cup race that may give a better idea of what we will see, assuming the track is the same as it was a decade ago. If it is, there’s still not much to talk about. It looks wide open, with the stairs being the only forced dismount. Everything else seems non-technical. Despite the clear skies forecast, reports are the ground is heavy from a month of rain. So it may be wide open and slow. More than ever, we may be relying on the racers to make the racing exciting.
Looking at the weather forecast, it doesn’t look like rain or mud will play a part in the Championships.
Here are the rider entry lists for the Championships. After a quick perusal, my favorite trivia nugget is that Toon Aerts is the oldest rider participating in the team relay. Also, 12 nations did not send a women’s elite racer and 10 nations have nobody registered in the men’s elite race. Only three nations did not send a men’s junior racer.
Picks
Normally we would record a Cyclocross Radio ep to give our picks for the weekend. That’s not going to happen this year. We will have to wait until the post-race episode to see if our predictions were correct. But in the name of accountability, here are podium picks from Cyclocross Radio co-host Micheal Boedigheimer, Bulletin Contributor Ethan Glading and me:
BOEDI
Men
Mathieu van der Poel
Wout van Aert
Joris Nieuwenhuis
Women
Lucinda Brand
Fem van Empel
Blanka Vas
ETHAN
Men
MvdP
Wout
Toon Aerts
Women
Blanka
Lucinda
Puck Pieterse
BILL
Men
Thibau Nys
Wout
Michael Vanthourenhout2
Women
Fem
Lucinda
Puck
Let me know your picks in the comments.
See you next week. Enjoy the races.
If you want to skip story time and get to the Worlds preview, scroll down past the parking lot sign photo.
Tibor del Grosso would be on my elite podium if he raced up this year. That kid is fast.
Bill, Please consider writing a tourist guide book for aging hipsters.
MvdP Rules Nieuwenhuis Nys
Vas Brand Empel
When was the last time you got towed in DC? 😉