Without Wout, a Dutch Rout?

Will the era of Dutch dominance at Worlds continue with an Oranje podium sweep?

Jeff Diffenbach is a member of the Bulletin community who is stepping into the role of guest contributor today. He takes a country-level look at Cyclocross Worlds in the 21st Century and prognosticates about Belgium’s chances to make the podium this weekend.

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Since the UCI let down its half-century chauvinistic guard in 2000 and invited women to race Cyclocross Worlds, Belgium has earned at least one podium spot in the Elite races every single year.

Belgian men swept the Elite podium 5 times in that span and took 2 spots another 14 times, the latter including their most common haul—8 frustrating 2nd-3rd combos.

In 6 of those 24 competitions, a Belgian woman joined her male compatriot(s). To be precise, a single Belgian woman—15-consecutive-time National Champion Sanne Cant—to no one’s surprise.

The Cyclocross Eras

Let’s attach some numbers to these words and quantify Belgium’s CX dynasty. What numbers, you say?

The UCI offers no official Worlds points tally across the Women and Men’s Elite, U23, and Junior fields. Which leaves a vacuum this analysis rushes to fill.

For the sake of argument, assign 40 points to each winning Junior, 20 for each 2nd-place Junior, 15, points for each 3rd-place Junion, and then 9, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 to round out the top 10. Double those points for U23: 80, 40, 30, … . And double them again for the elites: 160, 80, 15, … .

Winning earns twice the points of 2nd? This isn’t the Life Time Grand Prix—the Bulletin rewards winners. Especially World Championship winners.

The chart below tracks these points across four eras for the top five teams since 2000: Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Great Britain, and the Netherlands.

We can break the 21st century into four eras, if you will:

Era I: Belgium reigned supreme for the Belgian Years, albeit barely eking out the Netherlands in the first of these.

Era II: Next up, the Contested Years of 2005-06 through 2010-11. A rising France nearly toppled Belgium in 2005-06, then nearly did the same to the Netherlands in 2006-07, but never quite earned the top spot. Belgium rebounded in 2007-08 only to fall short of Netherlands and Czech Republic, who traded bragging rights in 2008-09 through 2010-11.

Era III: 2011-12 saw the emergence of the Low Country Years. Belgium held the upper hand over the Netherlands except for 2012-13, but only just bested the Netherlands in 2016-17. And both separated themselves from the pack.

Era IV: The Netherlands Years launched in 2018-19, when the Oranje grabbed hold of a supremacy they’ve yet to relinquish.

Dutch Sweep?

So what about the 2024 Era?

The question on the minds of the black, yellow, and red frites-and-mayo contingent: Can Belgium challenge a Netherlands team that has a strength not not seen in the last half-dozen years?

With Wout sitting this one out, not a chance.

But it’s worse than that.

Without Wout, the Netherlands might notch an unprecedented Elite podium shutout against their Low Country rivals.

On the women’s side, Belgium doesn’t really have a prayer. It would take two of the all-Dutch Quad Squad—Lucinda Brand, Ceylin del Carmen Alvarado, Puck Pieterse, and Fem van Empel—to falter, and even such a faltering only opens the door to their countrywomen Manon Bakker and Inge van der Heijden.

Sure, leading Belgian racers Sanne Cant, Marion Norbert-Riberolle, or Laura Verdonschot might step up, but that’s not what the smart money says.

Which gets us to the men. The Woutless men.

Two weeks ago, the chances for the Belgian men looked about as bleak as the women. An all-Dutch podium of everyone’s favorite, Mathieu van der Poel, and his two sidekicks, Joris Nieuwenhuis and Pim Ronhaar, seemed a decent bet. And Lars van der Haar stood right there waiting in the wings.

Then Belgian Michael Vanthourenhout won a week ago at Exact Cross Zonnebeke-Kasteelcross and finished 2nd at World Cup Benidorm. Countrymen Thibau Nys and Eli Iserbyt took 3rd and 4th at Benidorm. This past Saturday, Mikey V and Eli took 2nd and 3rd at X2O Hamme.

At the risk of jinxing things, hand the top step to Mathieu. That leaves a pretty sweet three-vs-three for the final two steps: Netherlands’s Joris, Pim, and Lars against Belgium’s Mikey V, Eli, and Thibau.

Which takes us to Hoogerheide on Sunday, where all six of the top Low Country rivals lined up for a three-vs-three battle royale.

Who does Hoogerheide give the edge on form?

Mikey V fell victim to a Ryan Kamp crash at the barriers early on, eventually worked his way back up toward the lead group, then faded. That aberration aside, Hoogerheide leaves us with mere seconds separating the Dutch and Belgian World Championship podium contenders.

Is Belgium peaking at the right time? Or does the Netherlands deny them an elite world championship podium for the first time since 1996-97?

Coin flip territory. This writer says “Heads” … Belgium extends its podium streak.