2023 Louisville Cyclocross Nationals Preview
We interpret the stats, history, and vibes for Sunday's U23 and Elite races
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The biggest weekend in American cyclocross is here.
One could argue that having World Cups in the U.S. has been a big deal and the World Championships are always a big race on the calendars of top riders, but there is nothing like U.S. Nationals for American ‘cross racers.
This year’s Nationals have a bit of familiarity to them, with the race returning to Joe Creason Park in Louisville. The return to a familiar venue means a return to a place where riders have reached that lofty pinnacle of the sport.
Clara Honsinger (U23 Women), Katie Clouse (Junior Women), Caleb Swartz (Collegiate D1), Ella Brenneman (Junior 13-14), Lauren Zoerner (Junior 15-16), Ian Brown (Junior 13-14) and Ivan Gallego (Junior 15-16) are all riders racing on Sunday who took home jerseys last time we were in the Derby City.
With the current front-loaded calendar format, I think it’s easy to form our opinions about the Nationals fields early in the season and kind of coast on those vibes through early December. The USCX series served to bring top talent together, but with the Canadians really showing out this season and key riders such as Clara Honsinger and Eric Brunner starting their seasons a bit late, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the fields and how things look heading into Nationals weekend before solidifying our opinions.
The schedule for this season has changed from previous seasons with the Junior 17-18 Women and Men racing on Saturday and the U23 and Elite fields racing on Sunday instead of cramming 6 races into one day.
This preview looks at the Sunday fields, mostly due to time constraints before I peace out for Louisville.
U23 Women
To say Lizzy Gunsalus and Lauren Zoerner have some history is an understatement.
Gunsalus and Zoerner first raced against each other in the Junior Women’s 11-12 National Championship at Austin Nationals in 2015. Gunsalus won that race and the next two National Championships where the duo matched up. Then Zoerner took home jerseys of her own in the Junior 15-16 races in Reno and Louisville.
The duo hasn’t won at Nationals since Louisville thanks to ones Katie Clouse and Madigan Munro, but they have emerged as two of the top riders at the Elite level the last two seasons.
All-time in UCI races, Gunsalus holds a 29-12 advantage over Zoerner, but this season, Zoerner holds a 3-1 advantage, including two podiums at the NCGP on a weekend where Gunsalus didn’t race super the best.
History would suggest Gunsalus has the advantage here, but Zoerner has momentum this year after winning the U23 Pan-American Championships and racing well at the NCGP. A Zoerner win would also even their Stars-and-Stripes hauls at three a piece.
The talent in the U23 Women’s field is not limited to Zoerner and Gunsalus.
The names we have seen the most this season racing a good part of the scene have been defending Junior Women’s National Champion Kaya Musgrave, Ella Brenneman, and Mia Aseltine. Other riders who have the chance to compete for a podium finish include Samantha Scott, Greta Kilburn, Cassidy Hickey, and Katherine Sarkisov.
The best way to make sense of how these riders have fared head-to-head is to go to the nifty CrossResults head-to-head matrix maker (thanks Results Boy!).
The season’s results suggest Musgrave is the favorite to take home a podium spot on Sunday. However, Michaela Thompson interestingly was the top finisher among this group when she raced against them during the Pan-American Championships weekend.
U23 Men
I have, IDK, generally been following the domestic cyclocross scene this year, and if you asked me who the favorite for the U23 Men’s race is, I would flex my extensive knowledge and tell you Andrew Strohmeyer. The Big Dig, after all, showed out earlier this season in the first three USCX weekends against Vinny B and company.
Chances seem pretty good that Stroh … Wait, hold on, I’m getting something in my earpiece. What’s that, Strohmeyer is racing in the Elite race? Oh.
That. Changes. Everything.
Let’s try this again then.
I have, IDK, generally been following the domestic cyclocross scene this year, and if you asked me who the favorite for the U23 Men’s race is, I would flex my extensive knowledge and tell you … I have no idea.
With cyclocross sponsors tough to come by, it certainly has been a year for the young. Jules van Kempen, Marcis Shelton, Dylan Zakrajsek, and Jack Spranger are all names that have been ringing out next to those of Canadians such as Ian Ackert and Luke Valenti.
But have some been ringing out more than others? I mean, Zakrajsek’s has likely been the most memorable thanks to its infinite permutations of pronunciations. But does one rider have the leg up?
Most of the ostensible favorites come into Nationals racing their best cyclocross of the season. Shelton had a head-turning ride on Day 2 of GO Cross when he finished 5th in the stacked field there. He hasn’t raced much cyclocross since then, but he did finish 5th at Pan-Ams.
Shelton had a big weekend at Kings CX where he finished 3rd and 4th. He then went on to finish as the 2nd American at Pan-Ams.
Van Kempen broke through at Really Rad with a 2nd-place finish on Day 1, and he was the top American at the Pan-American Championships in 3rd. Zakrajsek got his big ride at Really Rad as well, finishing 3rd on Day 2.
Based on those results, the favorite is: ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯
Probably the best thing to do is to go to the head-to-head matrix.
Based on all the results, the favorite is: ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯
Guess they will just have to race the race to sort things out.
Elite Women
Ever since ending Katie Compton’s vaunted run of National Championships in Lakewood, Clara Honsinger has completely solidified her status as the top Elite Women’s cyclocross racer in America.
Honsinger followed up her National Championship with the Winter of Clara during the pandemic and then won DuPage Nationals by 3:16 and Hartford Nationals by 1:37.
Raylyn Nuss put up a good fight last year, leading the entire first lap and really putting pressure on Honsinger to fight through the conditions and get to the front.
That silver was the culmination of the best season of Nuss’ career and another milestone in her ascendency in the sport. Nuss hit the offseason hoping to continue to chip away at Honsinger’s advantage and compete for podiums against the likes of Caroline Mani this season.
There is really no way to sugarcoat the reality that Nuss’ season did not show the progress and growth she has demonstrated to this point in her career. Nuss started the season with two podiums at GO Cross and then did not reach the top three the remainder of the season. Those two podiums come quite short of the seven she averaged over the previous three seasons.
Clara Honsinger, meanwhile, remains Clara Honsinger.
Honsinger started her season later than usual this year after a massive road campaign with the outgoing EF Education First - Tibco - SVB road team. She won a tough battle against Bella Holmgren on Day 1 of Kings CX, won the Saturday race at Pan-Ams, and lost a hard-fought battle against the same Canadian wunderkind at Pan-Ams.
The wild card in this year’s race—which is kind of hilarious to say, because the last decade of U.S. Nationals races—is Katie Clouse.
After winning two more jerseys at DuPage Nationals, Clouse didn’t race in 2022 due to contractual obligations with the Human Powered Health road team. She did make a cameo at Hartford Nationals where she finished 2nd in the Collegiate Varsity race for Colorado Mesa and 2nd again in the U23 Women’s race, both behind Madigan Munro.
Clouse decided to jump back into cyclocross late in the season at Really Rad. She scored a podium finish there on Day 2, finished 3rd both days in Montana, and then finished 2nd behind Caroline Mani at the NCGP.
Honsinger is probably the closest thing we’ve seen to a lock to win Elite Nationals since Peak Katie Compton, but Clouse did keep her margins to Honsinger well under a minute both days in Montana, so maybe she can keep things close and make it “interesting,” to the extent that’s feasible.
One of the storylines coming into this season was that of the top seven finishers in the Elite Women’s race at Hartford Nationals, only two were racing cyclocross this season.
Austin Killips and Jenna Lingwood were prohibited from racing by the UCI, Hannah Arensman quit the sport, Anna Megale was off for maternal leave, and Sunny Gilbert retired. If we continue down the list, Caitlin Bernstein didn’t race after Nice Bikes folded, Georgia Gould was kind of YOLOing a Nationals appearance, and Emily Shields is in Europe this winter.
You have to go all the way down to 12th to Amelia Shea to find the next Hartford 2022 finisher who is scheduled to race on Sunday.
Riders who have finished in the top 10 in UCI races this season include:
Anna Dorovskikh (10th at Kings CX)
Kim Coleman (5th at Cyclocross de Levis)
Jennifer Malik (6th at Pan-Ams, Thunder Cross, 6th at NCGP)
Kathryn McDicken (9th at NCGP)
Caitlin Newman (7th and 6th at Major Taylor)
Clementine Nixon (8th at NCGP)
Natalie Quinn (5th at Thunder Cross and Pan-Ams)
Amelia Shea (8th at GO Cross, 5th at NCGP)
Heidi Wood (9th at Major Taylor)
Brenna Wrye-Simpson (7th at Pan-Ams)
Based on an unscientific review of these results, Quinn and Shea are likely your top favorites for the remaining two spots on the wide-angle podium.
Elite Men
The last two seasons of the Elite Men’s Nationals previews have been pretty easy to write.
Eric Brunner. Curtis White. Who you got?
The general narrative of the past two seasons was Eric Brunner was probably better than Curtis White, but when the conditions get ugly, White shines. This led to commentators, i.e. me, doubting Eric Brunner’s ability to ride in the mud prior to DuPage Nationals.
He silenced the critics, i.e. me, with a dominant win to capture his first Elite National Championship.
In 2023, I reached the conclusion that conditions don’t matter and Brunner’s dominance over White during the regular season—save that Day 2 at Charm City—meant that he would repeat.
Boy were some people, i.e. me, wrong about Brunner’s ability to ride in the … snow?
Look. You can probably just stop reading because obviously I am terrible at predicting what’s going to happen in the Elite Men’s race at Nationals.
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…
Wait, I’m getting something in my earpiece again. (Why am I wearing an earpiece? IDK)
Andrew Strohmeyer is racing the Elites on Sunday. I repeat, we have a third guy to talk about.
Strohmeyer burst onto the scene the opening weekend at GO Cross and made the Stroh Time during the subsequent rounds of the USCX Series must-see viewing. Strohmeyer didn’t back down from the challenges of Vinny B, Anton Ferdinande, and Loris Rouiller and finally broke through with a win on Day 2 of Charm City.
On about that time, we were all wondering if Strohmeyer was going to be racing Elites at Nationals, all the while knowing that he was obviously going to be racing Elites at Nationals.
Strohmeyer had a meh 12th at World Cup Waterloo before heading to Europe for the entire month of November. He scored an impressive 4th in the U23 race at the Koppenbergcross, which was the highlight of his trip. Even Strohmeyer would likely agree he isn’t coming into Nationals riding his best.
…
…
Hold on, I am getting more in this hypothetical earpiece.
Wait, you’re saying we’re guilty of Scott Funston cancellation? *Nervously looks around*
Folks, we have a fourth guy to talk about!
After finishing 4th at Hartford Nationals in his first year as an Elite, Funston’s 8th-8th-6th-5th at Rochester and Charm City were a bit of a disappointment for the Happy Fun Ball. Funston finally broke through with a 2nd on Day 2 of Kings CX and scored 2nd-place finishes at both Thunder Cross and Pan-Ams.
Funston enters Nationals off a run of three European World Cups, which he says help him hone his craft and dial his fitness.
One of the challenges in assessing this group of dudes is that unlike the generation lost in space, they really have not been in one place very often this season. Funston and Brunner started their seasons a bit late and Strohmeyer went to Europe for a month, so there are not a lot of data on their head-to-head results.
Strohmeyer has a healthy advantage over White and Funston, but his only race against Brunner was at World Cup Waterloo.
It pains me to do this, but Sunday’s race may very well come down to the weather and how that weather affects the course.
Brunner and Strohmeyer both won National Championships at Lakewood, but that was a slick and slidey mud. Brunner also won a National Championship in Chicago, which was also a slick and slidey mud. White finished 2nd at 2018 Louisville Nationals, which was a lulzy thick mud. White also won at Hartford Nationals, which featured a snowy, sloshy mud.
It also could, like, not rain very much and be tacky and fast.
History dictates that White is at his best when conditions are at their worst. Brunner is a European-caliber rider when conditions are dry. And Strohmeyer is most comfortable climbing and slip-sliding around.
So tl;dr, I don’t know y’all. Pick your favorite rider and root like crazy for them. Then we can go ahead and fill in the narratives post-hoc.
And whatever the result, some commentators, i.e. me, will inevitably be wrong.
I’m now totally pumped up for nats!. The paragraph about the mud was so hilarious that I had to read it out loud to the fam. 😂. But also so true and insightful! This is sports media worth paying for!